Will CBDC adoption accelerate?

This blog post has been written by the person who has mapped the CBDC infrastructure market in a clean and beautiful presentation

Central Bank Digital Currencies moved from experimental pilots to multi-trillion-yuan processing volumes in 2024-2025, with 137 jurisdictions now exploring CBDCs representing 98% of global GDP.

China's e-CNY surpassed ¥7.3 trillion in transactions while India's e-rupee circulation quadrupled to ₹1,016 crore, creating a $213 billion addressable market by 2030 with infrastructure revenue opportunities reaching $20 billion by 2035.

And if you need to understand this market in 30 minutes with the latest information, you can download our quick market pitch.

How much measurable growth has there been in CBDC adoption globally over 2024 and what are the most recent 2025 figures so far?

CBDC adoption demonstrated significant measurable growth in 2024, with the number of active pilots increasing from 46 to 49 countries (+6% year-to-date in 2025) while global CBDC payment values jumped 210% to $0.31 billion.

China's e-CNY recorded the most dramatic expansion, with transaction volumes surging from ¥1.8 trillion in mid-2023 to ¥7 trillion by June 2024—a 289% increase—before reaching ¥7.3 trillion by April 2025. The digital yuan now supports over 290 million wallet users, up from 280 million at year-end 2024, representing approximately 7% annual growth in user adoption.

India's e-rupee circulation exploded by 1,363% in 2024, growing from ₹16 crore in March 2023 to ₹234 crore by March 2024, then quadrupling again to ₹1,016 crore by March 2025—a 334% year-to-date increase. Monthly transaction volumes accelerated from 3 million in Q1-2024 to 12 million in Q1-2025, marking 300% year-over-year growth. Nigeria's eNaira circulation increased more modestly by 57% to ₦18.32 billion by October 2024, though growth appears to be plateauing at around ₦19 billion by mid-2025.

The total number of jurisdictions researching CBDCs reached 137 by June 2025, up from 134 at end-2024, representing 98% of global GDP. However, the number of fully-launched retail CBDCs remained static at three (Bahamas, Jamaica, Nigeria), indicating that while research and pilot activity is accelerating, actual deployment continues to face implementation challenges.

Need a clear, elegant overview of a market? Browse our structured slide decks for a quick, visual deep dive.

Which countries or regions have shown the fastest adoption rates of CBDCs and what quantitative evidence supports these trends?

South Asia leads regional CBDC momentum with an 82% compound annual growth rate from 2023-2025, expanding from one pilot (India) to three active projects including Pakistan's sandbox and Bangladesh's feasibility studies.

China dominates absolute adoption metrics with merchant acceptance growing 25% year-over-year to 7 million locations by Q1-2025, while offline hardware wallet distribution expanded 360% to 2.3 million cards and wearables. The e-CNY processed over 12 million subway rides monthly in Beijing alone, demonstrating real-world usage beyond pilot programs. Cross-border adoption gained traction through the International Digital Yuan Operation Centre established in Shanghai FTZ in June 2025.

The MENA and GCC region showed 41% CAGR growth, expanding from three to six pilots, with Saudi Arabia joining the mBridge multi-CBDC platform that now includes 31 commercial banks. The mBridge project demonstrated quantifiable cross-border efficiency gains, processing $22 million in oil-trade pilots during 2024 while achieving 98% cost reduction and 7-second settlement times between UAE-Hong Kong corridors.

Europe experienced the fastest growth from a zero baseline, with the digital euro, digital pound, Norway's "Archer," and Sweden's e-krona Phase 3 bringing total active retail pilots to five. The European Central Bank allocated €15 million for digital euro development and received over 30 responses to its platform RFP in 2024, with vendor shortlisting completed by June 2025. The ECB's prototype achieved 20,000 transactions per second in laboratory testing, with field tests beginning in Q1-2025.

Brazil's Drex project gained momentum with 16 pilot banks completing the regulatory sandbox by Q2-2025, while India's wholesale CBDC now settles 99% of secondary government securities trades intraday, demonstrating institutional adoption beyond retail experiments.

If you want updated data about this market, you can download our latest market pitch deck here

What are the key drivers and catalysts currently propelling CBDC adoption and how significant are they in terms of actual market impact?

Payment sovereignty concerns drive CBDC development as central banks position digital currencies as public alternatives to US-dollar-based stablecoins like USDT and USDC, with the digital euro, digital yuan, and e-rupee explicitly designed to counter private currency dominance.

Cross-border payment inefficiencies create measurable demand for CBDC solutions, with the mBridge pilot demonstrating 98% cost reduction and 7-second settlement compared to traditional correspondent banking. The BIS Icebreaker hub reduced retail foreign exchange spreads by enabling competitive quoting mechanisms, while processing real oil-trade settlements worth $22 million in 2024 pilots.

Financial inclusion drives adoption in developing markets, where India's e-rupee expanded to 60 lakh (6 million) wallet users through non-bank fintech partnerships with CRED and MobiKwik. Offline capability pilots in tribal regions address connectivity gaps, while the Bahamas mandated commercial bank integration by 2026 to overcome the Sand Dollar's initial distribution challenges. Odisha's Subhadra Yojana distributed ₹880 million to 88,000 women via e-rupee, demonstrating government-to-person payment efficiency.

Technological readiness accelerated through infrastructure expansion, with China's e-CNY node clusters growing 46% to 452 locations while offline hardware wallets increased 360% to 2.3 million units. The digital euro prototype achieved 20,000 transactions per second in testing, while mBridge validator nodes doubled to eight including Saudi Arabia and BIS participation.

Regulatory clarity emerged as a catalyst, with the EU's Digital Euro Regulation entering trilogue negotiations and establishing legal-tender status with mandatory acceptance. India's RBI permitted non-bank fintech e-rupee wallets and added programmability rules, while the Bahamas passed legislation forcing commercial bank Sand Dollar distribution by 2026.

What are the most significant obstacles or barriers slowing CBDC adoption globally and what quantitative data illustrates their impact?

Merchant integration challenges represent the primary adoption barrier, with live CBDC implementations consistently failing to achieve meaningful circulation despite government support.

How large is the addressable market for CBDCs today and what is the projected size in 2026, 2030, and 2035?

The global CBDC addressable market stands at $0.47 billion in 2025 based on current transaction volumes from active implementations, with Juniper Research projecting explosive growth to $213 billion annually by 2030.

Current market size reflects limited deployment, with China's e-CNY contributing the majority of transaction value at ¥7.3 trillion ($1 billion equivalent), India's e-rupee adding approximately $120 million equivalent in circulation, and other implementations like Nigeria's eNaira and Jamaica's JAM-DEX contributing minimal volumes below $50 million combined.

By 2026, MetaTech forecasts the market reaching $3.2 billion, driven by anticipated digital euro pilot retail volumes of €30 billion and Brazil's Drex business-to-business transactions. This projection assumes successful pilot-to-production transitions in at least three major economies beyond China and India.

The 2030 forecast of $213 billion assumes 15 retail and 9 wholesale CBDCs achieve full deployment, with 92% of transaction value remaining domestic rather than cross-border. This scenario requires successful launches in the eurozone, United Kingdom, Brazil, and at least five additional G20 economies, along with widespread merchant acceptance achieving 15% market share of domestic digital payments in mature implementations.

By 2035, infrastructure revenue alone could reach $20 billion annually while transaction volumes may hit $780 billion, assuming 30% compound annual growth and the emergence of interoperable multi-CBDC networks. This long-term projection depends on resolving current privacy, scalability, and banking disintermediation concerns while achieving seamless integration with existing payment rails.

Wondering who's shaping this fast-moving industry? Our slides map out the top players and challengers in seconds.

What segments of the financial system or economy are demonstrating the strongest traction with CBDCs based on adoption metrics or transaction volumes?

Government-to-person (G2P) payments show the strongest early adoption metrics, with Odisha's Subhadra Yojana successfully distributing ₹880 million to 88,000 women via India's e-rupee, demonstrating clear use-case validation for social welfare disbursements.

Urban mass transit represents the most successful consumer application, with Beijing subway processing over 12 million e-CNY rides monthly, indicating that high-frequency, low-value transactions drive meaningful adoption when integrated into existing consumer habits.

Wholesale securities settlement demonstrates institutional traction, with India's CBDC-W now settling 99% of secondary government securities trades on an intraday basis, proving operational viability for high-value financial market infrastructure. This success in wholesale markets provides credibility that accelerates retail acceptance.

Retail QR commerce shows expanding merchant acceptance, with China's e-CNY now accepted at major retailers including JD.com, supermarket chains, and 17 provincial tourist sites. Merchant acceptance grew 25% year-over-year to 7 million locations by Q1-2025, though transaction volumes remain below 2% of total digital payments.

Cross-border trade finance demonstrates emerging traction through mBridge's $22 million oil-trade pilot settlements in 2024, while the platform expanded to 31 participating commercial banks including new Saudi participants. The 98% cost reduction and 7-second settlement times vs. traditional correspondent banking create compelling value propositions for international trade.

Looking for the latest market trends? We break them down in sharp, digestible presentations you can skim or share.

If you want clear information about this market, you can download our latest market pitch deck here

How are incumbent financial institutions responding quantitatively to CBDC pilots and rollouts, in terms of investments, partnerships, or usage metrics?

Commercial banks demonstrate measured but accelerating integration with CBDC infrastructure, with India expanding from 4 banks in 2023 to 17 banks offering e-rupee services by 2025, while opening APIs to fintech partners including CRED and MobiKwik.

The mBridge wholesale CBDC platform attracted 31 commercial banks by 2025, up from 20 in 2023, with new Saudi bank participation expanding the network's geographic reach and transaction volumes. These banks collectively processed $22 million in pilot oil-trade settlements during 2024, demonstrating real commercial deployment beyond testing.

Major payment networks invested heavily in CBDC compatibility, with Visa and Mastercard creating dedicated CBDC product suites while Visa successfully tested offline voucher mode functionality with the Bank of Israel. These investments indicate strategic positioning for anticipated retail CBDC launches rather than defensive responses.

European payment service providers showed strong interest in digital euro opportunities, with over 30 companies responding to the ECB's platform request for proposals in 2024, leading to vendor shortlisting by June 2025. The ECB allocated €15 million for development, indicating substantial commercial opportunity expectations.

Infrastructure investments by technology vendors accelerated, with IBM, ConsenSys, and TCS leading platform tenders worth an estimated $3 billion total addressable market by 2035. The Bahamas required legislation mandating all six commercial banks integrate Sand Dollar support by 2026, demonstrating regulatory pressure where voluntary adoption failed.

Cross-border foreign exchange providers positioned for CBDC liquidity services, with HSBC, Standard Chartered, and fintech platforms like Partior and Ripple developing CBDC-specific product suites targeting the projected $200 million TAM for FX liquidity nodes growing at 55% CAGR.

What evidence is there for consumer or business demand for CBDCs and how is this demand trending quarter over quarter?

Consumer demand shows mixed signals with strong growth in active implementations but concerning stagnation in markets where adoption remains voluntary.

Business demand concentrates in specific use cases where CBDCs solve clear pain points, with wholesale securities settlement showing 99% adoption for Indian government securities trades and Beijing mass transit processing 12 million monthly e-CNY rides.

Survey data reveals consumer preferences vary significantly by region, with 58% of CFA-member respondents supporting CBDCs primarily to improve domestic payments, while 34% express privacy concerns that limit adoption willingness.

What kind of technological infrastructure is in place globally for CBDCs and how fast is this infrastructure expanding or improving?

CBDC technological infrastructure demonstrates rapid expansion across both hardware and software layers, with China's e-CNY node clusters growing 46% to 452 locations while offline hardware wallets increased 360% to 2.3 million cards and wearables.

Blockchain validator infrastructure scaled significantly through the mBridge project, doubling from 4 to 8 validator nodes including new Saudi Arabia and BIS participation. The platform processes real cross-border value transfers with 7-second settlement times, proving production-ready capabilities for wholesale applications.

Processing capacity improvements accelerated in Europe, where the ECB's digital euro prototype achieved 20,000 transactions per second in laboratory testing, with field testing beginning Q1-2025. Over 30 payment service providers responded to the ECB's platform RFP, indicating robust vendor ecosystem development.

Offline capability infrastructure expanded through China's deployment of 2.3 million hardware wallets including cards and wearable devices, addressing connectivity gaps that limit financial inclusion in remote areas. India launched offline pilots in tribal regions, while the BIS and Bank of England continue evaluating whether zero-knowledge proofs and secure multi-party computation can meet retail latency requirements.

API integration infrastructure matured with India expanding from 4 to 17 banks offering e-rupee services while opening software development kits to fintech partners like CRED and MobiKwik. This demonstrates transition from closed pilot systems to production-ready platforms supporting third-party innovation.

Cross-border interoperability infrastructure progressed through projects like BIS Icebreaker 2.0, which reduced retail foreign exchange spreads through competitive quoting mechanisms, while mBridge proved 98% cost reduction vs. traditional correspondent banking for trade finance settlements.

If you want fresh and clear data on this market, you can download our latest market pitch deck here

What are the latest regulatory and policy developments that could materially accelerate or constrain CBDC adoption over the next 5 to 10 years?

The European Union's Digital Euro Regulation entering trilogue negotiations represents the most significant regulatory development, establishing legal-tender status with mandatory acceptance while allowing small and medium enterprise opt-outs.

The United States House passage of the CBDC Anti-Surveillance State Act creates the strongest regulatory constraint, explicitly banning retail CBDC issuance while permitting Federal Reserve participation in wholesale projects like Project Agorá. This divergence between US and EU approaches could fragment global CBDC development and limit cross-border interoperability initiatives.

India's Reserve Bank permitted non-bank fintech companies to offer e-rupee wallets and added programmability rules, accelerating financial inclusion by expanding distribution beyond traditional banking channels. The RBI simultaneously announced plans to explore cross-border CBDC pilots, potentially connecting with mBridge or similar networks.

China established the International Digital Yuan Operation Centre in Shanghai Free Trade Zone in June 2025, creating dedicated infrastructure for cross-border e-CNY operations and signaling aggressive international expansion plans despite Western resistance to yuan-denominated alternatives.

The Bahamas passed legislation mandating all six commercial banks integrate Sand Dollar support by 2026, demonstrating regulatory willingness to override bank resistance where voluntary adoption fails. This precedent could influence other jurisdictions experiencing similar implementation challenges.

The Bank for International Settlements updated CBDC system design guidelines in November 2024, addressing privacy protection and legal finality concerns that previously hindered central bank confidence in retail deployments. These technical standards could accelerate decision-making in jurisdictions currently evaluating CBDC programs.

Planning your next move in this new space? Start with a clean visual breakdown of market size, models, and momentum.

What tangible investment opportunities are emerging directly from CBDC rollouts today, and which are projected to grow fastest in the next five years?

CBDC platform integration and API development represents the largest immediate opportunity with $500 million total addressable market in 2025, projected to grow at 46% CAGR over five years.

What lessons can be drawn from CBDC pilot programs and early implementations, particularly in terms of adoption rates, usage behavior, and scalability?

Network effects prove more decisive than financial incentives for driving CBDC adoption, with Jamaica's JAM-DEX demonstrating that one-off JMD 2,500 airdrops drove initial sign-ups but transaction volumes plateaued without sufficient merchant point-of-sale integration.

Integration with existing payment rails is crucial for success, as evidenced by the Sand Dollar's struggles due to lack of banking system interoperability until ACH linkage was completed in 2024. Successful implementations like China's e-CNY achieved traction by embedding within established payment ecosystems rather than creating parallel infrastructure.

Tiered KYC and wallet caps effectively balance financial inclusion with systemic risk management, with China's four-tier model allowing ¥2,000 daily transfers for unbanked users while capping exposure. This approach enables broader access without compromising monetary policy transmission or creating bank disintermediation risks.

Wholesale implementations build credibility that accelerates retail acceptance, as demonstrated by India's securities settlement success creating institutional confidence that supported retail e-rupee adoption. The 99% adoption rate for government securities trades provided proof-of-concept that reduced resistance to consumer applications.

Mandatory participation may be necessary to overcome network adoption challenges, with the ECB's draft rulebook requiring euro-area banks to provide digital euro wallets as a basic service. The Bahamas similarly required legislation to force commercial bank Sand Dollar integration, indicating that voluntary adoption often fails without regulatory mandates.

Offline capability determines financial inclusion impact, with successful deployments requiring robust solutions for areas with poor connectivity. China's 2.3 million hardware wallet distribution and India's tribal region pilots demonstrate necessary infrastructure investments, while technical limitations in zero-knowledge proofs and secure multi-party computation continue constraining scalability.

Conclusion

Sources

1. LinkedIn - Atlantic Council CBDC Tracker
2. CryptoNews - CBDC Exploration in 134 Countries
3. LinkedIn - Atlantic Council CBDC Updates
4. Axios - CBDC Pilots in 49 Countries
5. Blockhead - Digital Yuan Global Prominence
6. Central Banking - CBDC Transactions Hit Seven Trillion Yuan
7. Economic Times - RBI e-Rupee Usage Guide
8. Times of India - e-Rupee Circulation Growth
9. Vanguard Nigeria - eNaira Value Growth
10. Juniper Research - CBDC Transactions Forecast
11. People's Bank of China - mBridge Updates
12. Hong Kong Monetary Authority - mBridge Progress
13. IMF - Brazil CBDC Analysis
14. The Economist - Brazil Payment System
15. European Central Bank - Digital Euro Progress
16. Bank of Thailand - CBDC Pilot 2024
17. BIS - mBridge Multi-CBDC Project
18. Rokas Law - Digital Euro Analysis
19. Atlantic Council - Stablecoin Competition
20. Thales Group - Digital Currency Future
21. Bank of Israel - Visa CBDC Testing
22. MediaNama - RBI Annual Report Highlights
23. Cointelegraph - Bahamas CBDC Legislation